Certainty in the Face of Business Uncertainty

Find out how effective HR and business leaders can harness uncertainty to their benefit.

Uncertainty persists in so many areas of our personal and professional lives.

1. We don’t know whether we will face a recession or growth economy

2. We don’t know where (hybrid) or how (digital) work will be done in the future

3. We don’t know what skills we will need to be effective leaders or employees

4. We don’t know how markets will change

5. We don’t know what we don’t know

Many (including myself and my colleagues) have explored how to harness uncertainty by taming apprehensions, focusing on the future, experimenting, remaining nimble, and seeking out creative people.

While these behaviors are important and help harness uncertainty, effective business and HR leaders (and individuals) can not only focus on harnessing uncertainty but also seeking more certainty.

Obsessing over managing uncertainties can lead to endless loops of scenario planning, resulting in feeling out of control, decreased mental health, and reduced effectiveness.

But shifting our thinking to focusing on certainty emphasizes what is likely known and actually achievable.

Let’s reframe the above uncertainties in terms of what is certain:

1. If I take care of myself physically (exercise, nutrition, sleep), socially (engage with others), and emotionally (be positive and grateful), then I will feel better about who I am and more able to respond to whatever the next phase of the pandemic might bring.

2. If I focus on how my work serves others (employees inside or customers outside the organization), I can be confident in my effectiveness regardless of where I work (hybrid) or how I work (digital or in-person).

3. If I continue learning new skills, I can confidently adapt to different and unforeseen circumstances.

4. If I focus on the value I create for customers and markets, I will likely find opportunity in changed conditions.

5. If I commit to learning, I will adapt to what I do not yet know.

Business and HR leaders who focus on certainty emphasize what is within their control regardless of circumstances by clarifying principles or priorities for both their overall organization where work is done and for individuals doing that work.

Let me propose a few organizational and personal certainties to help you get started on yours.

Organizational certainties

Organizations matter and shape how people inside (employees) and outside (customers, investors) think, act, and feel. Even in the uncertain context of today’s world, some organizational certainties—if acted on—lead to effectiveness.

Focus outside-in

Organizations survive and thrive by being successful in their marketplace. Emphasizing internal governance (reporting relationships, policies, practices) has less relevance than ensuring that these internal actions create value for today’s and tomorrow’s customers. Leaders can be certain that if they deliver value for customers, their organization is more likely to succeed.

Human capability matters

Organizations succeed (and compete) by having access to financial capital, differentiated strategies, and technological or operational excellence. Even more importantly, successful organizations also require human capability, which consists of talent (people, individual competencies, workforce), organization (culture, organization capabilities, workplace), leadership (individual leaders and leadership systems), and HR (practices, departments, people).

Business and HR leaders who upgrade human capability will be more certain and equipped to help their organizations succeed in changing markets.

Guide decisions and choices with analytics

Good analytics (evidence, data, research) can improve how leaders allocate resources to achieve desired results. Analytics have evolved from benchmarking (how do we compare?) to best practices (who is good, and how can we emulate them?), then to predictive analytics (why are they good?) and ultimately guidance (what can we, specifically, do to improve?).^[1]

With guidance data, leaders can be more certain about which human capability investments lead to desired outcomes for their specific organizations.

Personal certainties

At a personal level, I know things about myself and can help others know things about themselves that generate certainty even in a world of uncertainty.

Live my values, every day, through my behaviors

When leaders respond to uncertainty based on personal values, they are predictable and authentic. Regardless of where or how leaders work, they bring values and character to their jobs that define their responses to any number of factors or events. Most of those reading this post have done formal and informal value clarification exercises to determine their priority values and how to enact them in daily living.

As an example: personally, I value learning that creates value for others. Regardless of the uncertainty of circumstances, I can focus on learning. Instead of being confrontational when someone disagrees or disparages my ideas or work, I can be curious about why they disagree so that I can learn. In addition, I can also continually explore how to impact others with my own learnings.

Learning to add value to others may not be among your personal values, but regardless of the uncertain circumstances, acting on your values can give you certainty in shaping your character and identity.

Affirm others

Regardless of uncertain circumstances, leaders can commit to affirming others by understanding their point of view, listening to their views, respecting how they may differ, and being grateful for their efforts. Leaders don’t have to agree with others to affirm them. But leaders can be certain that when they affirm others, they build positive relationships that lead to success.

Take care of myself so that I can care for others

If leaders don't take care of their personal physical, social, and emotional requirements, they wear out, get testy, and make bad choices. Leaders can be purposeful in pausing, taking time away, and attending to their personal needs to ultimately place themselves in a position to care for others, even in times of uncertainty.

Create communities of support

In times of uncertainty, people can draw support from friends who may be work colleagues or their families, social or hobby groups, etc. Leaders can encourage relationships that offer social certainty.

Seek certainty in times of uncertainty

Uncertainty exists and seems certain to increase in the world today. Rather than solely focusing on harnessing uncertainty, leaders can also emphasize and embrace certainties for their organization, for others, and for themselves to transcend uncertainty and be effective.